SDG 4 in the Post-Pandemic Era: Navigating the Crisis and Charting a Course for Recovery

Executive Summary

Progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4)—the global commitment to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education for all by 2030—was already lagging before 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, transformed this slow progress into a catastrophic setback, creating the most severe disruption to global education systems in history. At its peak, the pandemic forced the closure of schools for nearly 1.6 billion learners, exacerbating a pre-existing learning crisis and deepening profound societal inequalities.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the state of SDG 4, establishing a pre-pandemic baseline, quantifying the multifaceted impact of the COVID-19 crisis, and assessing the current landscape of recovery. Before the pandemic, the world was grappling with a silent crisis of "learning poverty," with over half of 10-year-olds in low- and middle-income countries unable to read a simple text. The system was failing its most vulnerable learners, reinforcing rather than reducing inequality.

The pandemic amplified these failures with devastating efficiency. The global pivot to remote learning, while necessary, became a primary driver of educational stratification due to a vast digital divide that left at least 463 million children completely unreachable. The consequences have been severe: a surge in learning poverty to a projected 70%, a catastrophic decline in foundational literacy and numeracy, and a projected $21 trillion loss in lifetime earnings for the affected generation. Furthermore, the crisis has put an additional 24 million learners at risk of dropping out and has strained national education budgets at the very moment investment is most needed.

Returning to the pre-pandemic status quo is not a viable option; it would mean returning to a state of crisis. The global education community has converged on a strategic pathway for recovery, encapsulated in the five-point RAPID framework: Reach every child and keep them in school; Assess learning levels regularly; Prioritize teaching the fundamentals; Increase the efficiency of instruction; and Develop psychosocial health and well-being. This report concludes that the pandemic, while devastating, has created a unique opportunity to "build back better." It has exposed the vulnerabilities of existing systems and created the political impetus for fundamental reforms. However, this window of opportunity is closing. Without urgent, sustained, and equitably financed action to implement these recovery strategies, the world risks a permanent scar on a generation's human capital and the failure to achieve the transformative promise of SDG 4.

Section 1: The Global Commitment to Quality Education: Deconstructing SDG 4

1.1 The Vision for 2030: A Paradigm Shift in Global Education

Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4) represents the international community's collective commitment to "ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all" by the year 2030.1 Formulated as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this goal is positioned not merely as a sectoral objective but as a fundamental human right and a critical enabler for the achievement of all other SDGs.3 Quality education is the key that unlocks progress on poverty reduction (SDG 1), gender equality (SDG 5), decent work (SDG 8), and the fostering of peaceful and inclusive societies (SDG 16).5

The architecture of SDG 4 reflects a significant evolution from previous global education frameworks, such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The MDGs were widely credited with driving a historic expansion in primary school enrollment, particularly in developing regions.1 However, this success in improving access masked a profound failure in educational quality. A growing body of evidence revealed that millions of children were attending school but failing to acquire basic foundational skills, a phenomenon that came to be known as the global "learning crisis".1

SDG 4 was designed to directly address this shortcoming. It institutes a paradigm shift from a narrow focus on access to a more holistic and ambitious focus on quality and learning outcomes. The goal's language deliberately includes phrases such as "quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes" (Target 4.1) and establishes metrics like "minimum proficiency level in reading and mathematics" (Indicator 4.1.1).8 This redefines educational success not as a child's presence in a classroom, but as the tangible acquisition of knowledge and skills. Furthermore, SDG 4 adopts a comprehensive, lifelong learning perspective, encompassing the entire educational journey from early childhood development through primary, secondary, tertiary, and vocational training to adult literacy and skills development.3

A second defining feature of SDG 4 is its foundational commitment to equity and inclusion. The principle of "leaving no one behind" is woven into the goal's very structure. This is most explicit in Target 4.5, which calls for the elimination of disparities and ensuring equal access for all vulnerable groups, including persons with disabilities, indigenous peoples, and children in vulnerable situations.1 To enforce this, the monitoring framework employs parity indices (female/male, rural/urban, wealth quintiles) as a core measurement tool for all relevant indicators.8 This mechanism is a powerful instrument for accountability, designed to prevent a scenario where positive national averages obscure the persistent exclusion of marginalized populations. Progress is only considered genuine if it is shared by all.

1.2 The Ten Targets for Transformation

The overarching vision of SDG 4 is operationalized through a framework of ten specific targets: seven "outcome" targets that define the desired educational achievements, and three "means of implementation" targets that specify the systemic conditions necessary to realize them.9 Together, they provide a comprehensive roadmap for transforming education systems globally.1

Target

Key Global Indicators

4.1 Free Primary and Secondary Education

4.1.1: Proportion of children and young people achieving at least a minimum proficiency level in (i) reading and (ii) mathematics. 4.1.2: Completion rate (primary, lower secondary, upper secondary education).

4.2 Equal Access to Quality Pre-Primary Education

4.2.1: Proportion of children under 5 years of age who are developmentally on track in health, learning and psychosocial well-being. 4.2.2: Participation rate in organized learning (one year before the official primary entry age).

4.3 Equal Access to Affordable TVET and Higher Education

4.3.1: Participation rate of youth and adults in formal and non-formal education and training in the previous 12 months.

4.4 Relevant Skills for Financial Success

4.4.1: Proportion of youth and adults with information and communications technology (ICT) skills.

4.5 Eliminate All Discrimination in Education

4.5.1: Parity indices (female/male, rural/urban, wealth quintile, etc.) for all education indicators.

4.6 Universal Literacy and Numeracy

4.6.1: Proportion of a given population achieving at least a fixed level of proficiency in functional (a) literacy and (b) numeracy skills.

4.7 Education for Sustainable Development and Global Citizenship

4.7.1: Extent to which (i) global citizenship education and (ii) education for sustainable development are mainstreamed in national education policies, curricula, teacher education, and student assessment.

4.a Build and Upgrade Inclusive and Safe Schools

4.a.1: Proportion of schools with access to basic services (e.g., electricity, drinking water, handwashing facilities).

4.b Expand Higher Education Scholarships for Developing Countries

4.b.1: Volume of official development assistance (ODA) flows for scholarships.

4.c Increase the Supply of Qualified Teachers

4.c.1: Proportion of teachers with the minimum required qualifications, by education level.

Section 2: The Pre-Pandemic Landscape: A World Already Off-Track

To comprehend the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential to first establish a clear baseline of the state of global education in the years leading up to 2020. The data from this period (2015-2019) reveals a complex picture of slow, uneven progress coupled with deep-seated, systemic failures. The global education system was already fragile and failing to meet its targets, making it acutely vulnerable to the shock that was to come.

2.1 A Tale of Uneven Progress (2015-2019)

On the surface, several key indicators showed positive momentum. Between 2015 and the onset of the pandemic, global primary school completion rates rose from 85%, while lower secondary completion increased from 74%.13 The expansion of access extended into post-secondary education, with global participation in tertiary education reaching 225 million students by 2018, equivalent to a gross enrollment ratio of 38%.1 Similarly, participation in organized early childhood learning was on an upward trend, reaching 69% globally in 2017.1

However, this progress was neither fast enough nor robust enough to meet the 2030 targets. The pace of improvement was already decelerating, indicating that the initial, easier gains in educational expansion had been achieved. For instance, the annual rate of increase in upper secondary completion had slowed from 1.3 percentage points in the 2010-2015 period to just 0.9 percentage points in the years following.13 This stagnation suggested that systems were struggling to reach the most marginalized populations and to make the deeper, qualitative improvements required by SDG 4.

2.2 The Silent Crisis: Schooling Without Learning

Beneath the headline figures on enrollment and completion lay a much more alarming reality. Long before COVID-19, the world was in the grip of a profound learning crisis, characterized by a dangerous paradox of expanding access and stagnating quality. This created a hollowed-out system that looked better on paper than it was in practice.

First, the challenge of access remained immense. In 2018, an estimated 258 million children, adolescents, and youth were still out of school, denied even the most basic opportunity for an education.15

Second, for the hundreds of millions who were in school, learning was far from guaranteed. The concept of "learning poverty"—defined as the inability of a 10-year-old to read and understand a simple text—became a critical indicator of this systemic failure.18 In 2019, before the pandemic, an astonishing 57% of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were living in learning poverty.20 This single statistic revealed that for a majority of children, years of schooling were not translating into foundational skills. Global proficiency data from 2019 corroborated this, showing that only 58% of students worldwide achieved the minimum proficiency level in reading by the end of primary school.10 The situation was particularly dire in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, where 2015 data indicated that 88% of primary and lower secondary school-age children were not proficient in reading, and 84% were not proficient in mathematics.1 The system was succeeding at getting children into classrooms but failing at its core mission: to teach them.

2.3 Persistent Barriers to Inclusion

The pre-pandemic education system was not only failing to deliver quality but was also a primary engine for reinforcing, rather than reducing, societal inequality. The 2020 Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report, published just as the pandemic was unfolding, provided a stark diagnosis of the deep-seated inequities that plagued education systems worldwide.15

Poverty was identified as the most critical barrier to educational success. A child's future was heavily predetermined by their family's wealth. In low- and middle-income countries, adolescents from the richest 20% of households were three times more likely to complete lower secondary education than their peers from the poorest 20%.15

Beyond wealth, systemic discrimination and exclusion were rampant. Children with disabilities were 19% less likely than their peers to achieve minimum reading proficiency. In the United States, LGBTIQ+ students were nearly three times more likely to stay home from school because they felt unsafe.15 Many countries still practiced educational segregation, such as separating Roma children into different schools in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, or had discriminatory laws on the books, such as those in some African nations that denied pregnant girls the right to attend school.15

These pre-existing conditions are crucial for understanding the pandemic's impact. The failure to address the equity targets of SDG 4, particularly Target 4.5, before 2020 created a deeply fractured and unequal global education landscape. When the crisis hit and learning was outsourced from the school to the home, the system had already sorted children into groups with vastly different capacities to cope. The pandemic did not create these inequalities; it merely exposed and amplified them with brutal efficiency.

Section 3: The Great Disruption: COVID-19 and the Global Education Shock

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 triggered an education shock of unprecedented scale and speed. In a matter of weeks, education systems across the globe shut down, initiating a period of profound disruption that would reshape the educational landscape and have lasting consequences for an entire generation of learners. The crisis revealed a profound lack of systemic resilience, as institutions built for a single mode of delivery were forced into a chaotic and ultimately inequitable scramble for remote solutions.

3.1 The Unprecedented Scale of School Closures

The response to the public health emergency was swift and near-universal. By April 2020, over 190 countries had implemented nationwide school closures, affecting nearly 1.6 billion learners at their peak—a staggering 94% of the world's student population.17 This represented the largest mass disruption of education in modern history, a simultaneous shock to virtually every system on the planet.26

The duration of these closures was far longer than initially anticipated and varied significantly by region and income level. Globally, between March 2020 and February 2022, schools were fully closed for an average of 141 days.28 However, this global average masks extreme regional disparities. The Latin America and the Caribbean region was the most severely affected, with schools fully closed for an average of 158 days, followed closely by South Asia at 146 days.29 In many LMICs, closures extended for the equivalent of a full school year or more, a stark contrast to many high-income countries where in-person learning resumed more quickly.20 The impact was most acute in the world's poorest nations, where closures affected up to 99% of the student population, leaving already vulnerable systems in a state of paralysis.17

3.2 The Global Experiment in Remote Learning

In response to the closures, governments and educators worldwide embarked on a massive, unplanned experiment in remote learning. Over 90% of countries rapidly implemented policies to provide some form of distance education, leveraging a mix of technologies to maintain a semblance of learning continuity.30

The choice of modality was heavily constrained by a country's existing infrastructure and wealth. High-income countries overwhelmingly pivoted to online learning platforms, leveraging their widespread internet connectivity and device availability.31 In contrast, countries with limited digital infrastructure were forced to rely on lower-tech solutions. Radio-based instruction was a key strategy in 80% of low-income countries, compared to just 46% of upper-middle-income countries.31 Television also played a crucial role, with TV-based remote learning policies having the highest potential reach globally, covering an estimated 62% of students, or nearly 930 million children worldwide.30

3.3 The Digital Chasm: A Crisis of Access and Equity

The global pivot to remote learning immediately collided with the harsh reality of the digital divide, transforming a universal health crisis into a deeply stratified education crisis. While well-intentioned, the reliance on technological solutions that were inaccessible to the poor and marginalized became the single largest catalyst of educational inequality during the pandemic.

The scale of this digital chasm was immense. A landmark UNICEF-ITU report revealed that two-thirds of the world's school-age children—1.3 billion in total—had no internet connection at home.32 Data from UNESCO showed that nearly 830 million students globally lacked access to a household computer, and over 40% had no home internet.33

This divide was profoundly unequal, mirroring and amplifying pre-existing socioeconomic disparities:

• By Country Income: In high-income countries, nearly 9 in 10 children had home internet access. In low-income countries, this figure was less than 1 in 20.32

• By Household Wealth: Globally, 60% of children from the richest households were connected, compared to only 16% from the poorest households.34

• By Location: Children in urban areas were significantly more likely to be connected (over 40%) than their rural peers (25%).34

As a direct consequence of this technological inequality, at least 463 million children—31% of the global student population—were completely unreachable by any form of digital or broadcast remote learning.30 This figure represents a baseline, as it does not account for households that lacked sufficient devices for all children, parents who lacked the skills to support home learning, or teachers who were untrained in digital pedagogy.35 The World Bank aptly described this situation as a "remote learning paradox," in which education systems adopted solutions that were fundamentally unsuited to the needs and realities of the majority of their student populations.28 The 463 million "unreachable" students were not a random sample; they were overwhelmingly poor, rural, and concentrated in the world's most disadvantaged regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, where nearly half of all students could not be reached.35 The emergency response, therefore, did not just fail to reach these children; it actively widened the educational gap between them and their more privileged peers who could maintain some level of learning continuity.

Section 4: Measuring the Aftermath: The Pandemic's Enduring Impact on SDG 4

The prolonged school closures and the inequitable rollout of remote learning have inflicted deep and lasting damage on global education, reversing years of progress and jeopardizing the future of an entire generation. The impact extends far beyond a temporary disruption, constituting a long-term human capital crisis with profound social and economic consequences. The quantifiable losses in learning, the exacerbation of inequality, the increased risk of dropout, and the strain on education financing paint a stark picture of the challenge ahead.

Metric

Pre-Pandemic Status (c. 2019)

Post-Pandemic Status/Projection

Source(s)

Out-of-School Children & Youth

258 million

272 million (2023)

6

Learning Poverty Rate (LMICs)

57%

70%

18

Primary School Reading Proficiency

58% of children at minimum level

101 million more children projected to fall below minimum level

10

Projected Lifetime Earnings Loss

$0

$21 Trillion

28

Additional Students at Risk of Dropout

0

24 million

39

4.1 The Catastrophe of Learning Loss

The most direct and devastating consequence of the pandemic has been a catastrophic loss of learning. Rigorous evidence from dozens of countries confirms that remote learning was, on average, a poor substitute for in-person instruction. Studies estimate that each month of school closure led to at least a full month of lost learning, and in some cases, students not only failed to learn new material but also forgot what they had previously known.40 On average, the learning loss amounted to 0.17 of a standard deviation, roughly equivalent to half a year's worth of schooling.41

This learning loss has dramatically worsened the pre-existing learning crisis. The most alarming indicator is the surge in learning poverty. In low- and middle-income countries, the share of 10-year-olds unable to read and understand a simple text is estimated to have jumped from 57% before the pandemic to 70% in its aftermath.18 This single statistic represents the erasure of two decades of global progress in education and threatens the foundational skills of hundreds of millions of children.37

This educational catastrophe is set to trigger a massive, long-term economic crisis. The World Bank, UNESCO, and UNICEF have progressively revised their estimates of the economic fallout upwards as the scale of the learning loss has become clearer. The current projection is that this generation of students stands to lose a staggering $21 trillion in lifetime earnings in present value.28 This figure, equivalent to 17% of today's global GDP, represents a permanent reduction in the productive capacity of an entire generation.19 This will translate into lower individual earnings, reduced tax revenues for governments, and slower national economic growth for decades to come, creating a vicious cycle where the consequences of the crisis undermine the capacity to recover from it.

4.2 Deepening Divides: The Exacerbation of Educational Inequality

The burden of learning loss was not shared equally. The pandemic acted as a great divider, disproportionately harming the most vulnerable students and widening pre-existing achievement gaps.43 Learning losses were consistently and significantly steeper for students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, those in rural areas, and younger children who are more dependent on direct, in-person instruction.40

This unequal impact was a direct result of the unequal access to the tools of remote learning. Children from low-income households, those with disabilities, and girls were far less likely to benefit from remote education due to a lack of devices, connectivity, electricity, and supportive home environments.44 Girls, in particular, faced compounding barriers as they were often expected to take on more household chores and were constrained by social norms and limited digital skills.44 The pandemic has therefore been a "generational catastrophe" that has severely undermined progress towards Target 4.5, which is dedicated to eliminating such disparities.46

4.3 The Silent Exodus: Increased Risk of Student Dropout

Beyond learning loss, the pandemic's economic shock has threatened students' very connection to the education system. The UN and UNESCO estimate that the crisis put an additional 23.8 to 24 million children and youth, from pre-primary to tertiary levels, at risk of dropping out or not returning to school.17

The drivers of this increased dropout risk are primarily socioeconomic. Widespread job losses and economic hardship have pushed families deeper into poverty, forcing many children into the workforce to support their households.19 For adolescent girls, the risks have been particularly acute, with school closures linked to an increase in early and forced marriage and unintended pregnancies, all of which create significant barriers to returning to education.39 The pandemic also revealed the critical role that schools play as a social safety net. For millions of vulnerable children, school closures meant the loss of essential services, including nutrition from school meals (affecting over 370 million children), health services, and protection from violence and abuse.17 The loss of this support system has had devastating and often hidden consequences for child well-being, further increasing their vulnerability to dropping out.

4.4 The Financial Squeeze: Shifting Tides in Education Financing

At the very moment when a massive injection of resources was needed to fund learning recovery, education financing came under severe pressure. In the initial phase of the crisis, two-thirds of low- and lower-middle-income countries were forced to cut their public education budgets to redirect funds towards the health emergency and social protection.47 Globally, education was deprioritized in fiscal stimulus packages, receiving less than 3% of the total allocation.44

This domestic squeeze was compounded by a worrying trend in international aid. Official Development Assistance (ODA) for education, a critical lifeline for the poorest countries, fell by 7% between 2020 and 2021, from $19.3 billion to $17.8 billion.51 This decline created a perfect storm of shrinking domestic budgets and diminishing external support, severely constraining the ability of the most affected countries to mount an effective response to the crisis.

Section 5: The Road to 2030: From Recovery to Resilient Transformation

Three years after the onset of the pandemic, the global education system has moved from a state of acute crisis to a period of fragile and uneven recovery. The challenge is no longer simply reopening schools but addressing the profound damage inflicted and accelerating progress towards the 2030 goals. The pandemic was a system-wide "unfreezing" event, a painful but powerful opportunity to move beyond restoring a failed status quo and instead "build back better" by implementing reforms that were necessary long before 2020.52 However, this is a race against time, as the window to act with sufficient resources and political will is closing, risking a permanent scar on a generation's human capital.

5.1 The Current State of Play: A Slow and Fragile Recovery

The reopening of schools worldwide has not automatically translated into a recovery of learning. The latest data reveals lingering deficits and, in some cases, a continued decline in educational outcomes.

• Elevated Out-of-School Numbers: As of 2023, the number of out-of-school children and youth stood at 272 million, an increase of 14 million from the pre-pandemic figure of 258 million, indicating that many who left school have not returned.6

• Declining Proficiency: Learning proficiency among those in school has worsened. Between 2018 and 2022, proficiency levels for lower-secondary students dropped by an alarming 15 points in mathematics and 10 points in reading.6 This demonstrates that simply being back in the classroom is insufficient to reverse the learning losses, which are compounding over time.

• Persistent Inequality: While some education systems are showing signs of academic recovery, the progress is uneven. Achievement gaps between students in high- and low-poverty districts, which widened significantly during the pandemic, have largely failed to narrow, threatening to make the pandemic's unequal impact a permanent feature of the educational landscape.53

5.2 A Framework for Action: The RAPID Recovery Strategy

In response to this multifaceted crisis, a global consensus has emerged around a strategic framework for learning recovery and acceleration. Developed collaboratively by the World Bank, UNESCO, UNICEF, and other leading partners, the RAPID framework provides a clear, evidence-based menu of policy actions for national governments.54 The framework is built on five interconnected pillars:

1. Reach every child and keep them in school: This involves proactive measures like back-to-school campaigns, community mobilization, and financial incentives such as cash transfers to ensure that all children, especially the most vulnerable, return to the classroom and are retained in the system.57

2. Assess learning levels regularly: To effectively address learning gaps, systems must first identify them. This requires implementing regular, simple, and effective learning assessments to provide teachers with the data they need to understand where students are and to target instruction accordingly.56

3. Prioritize teaching the fundamentals: Given the scale of lost instructional time, curricula must be consolidated to focus on the most essential foundational skills, primarily literacy and numeracy. This ensures that all students have the building blocks required for future learning.57

4. Increase the efficiency of instruction: Recovery requires more than just a return to pre-pandemic teaching methods. It necessitates the adoption of evidence-based pedagogical approaches proven to accelerate learning, such as targeted instruction (grouping students by learning level rather than grade), structured pedagogy, and small-group tutoring.53

5. Develop psychosocial health and well-being: The pandemic inflicted significant trauma and stress on students. Supporting their mental health and well-being is not an optional extra; it is a prerequisite for effective learning. This includes creating safe and inclusive school environments and training teachers to identify and support students in need.57

5.3 In-Depth Recommendations for a Resilient Future

Achieving the ambitious goals of SDG 4 by 2030 now requires a dual focus: implementing the RAPID framework at scale to address the immediate crisis, while simultaneously investing in long-term systemic reforms to build the resilient, equitable, and effective education systems of the future.

For National Governments:

• Invest and Reform: Education must become a national investment priority, protected from fiscal consolidation.6 Governments should develop and fund comprehensive, multi-year learning recovery plans aligned with the RAPID framework. Successful examples, such as Morocco's "pioneer schools" program—which combined technology, teacher training, and remedial activities to improve student learning by an average of 0.90 standard deviations in one year—demonstrate that rapid progress is possible with focused effort.38

• Support the Education Workforce: Teachers are the frontline of the recovery effort. Governments must invest heavily in their professional development, equipping them with the skills for remedial education, digital pedagogy, and providing psychosocial support to students.38 Addressing teacher well-being and ensuring they are valued and adequately compensated is critical for retaining a motivated and effective workforce.

• Bridge the Digital Divide: The pandemic exposed the digital divide as a critical vulnerability. Universal internet connectivity and access to digital devices must be treated as essential national infrastructure. This will not only build resilience for future crises but also unlock the potential of technology to personalize and accelerate learning for all students.60

• Strengthen Data Systems: Effective recovery requires evidence. Governments should invest in robust Education Management Information Systems (EMIS) and learning assessment platforms, such as the World Bank's Global Education Policy Dashboard (GEPD) and Learning Assessment Platform (LeAP), to monitor learning, identify at-risk students, and enable data-driven policy-making.38

For the International Community:

• Mobilize Sustainable Financing: The international community must reverse the decline in Official Development Assistance for education and work with countries to explore innovative financing mechanisms.51 This is essential to help low- and middle-income countries, which face the tightest fiscal constraints, to fund their ambitious recovery plans.

• Promote Global Public Goods and Knowledge Sharing: International organizations should continue to support the development and dissemination of best practices, diagnostic tools, and open educational resources. Fostering cross-country collaboration and learning allows nations to adopt and adapt proven strategies more quickly and effectively.60

• Maintain a Laser Focus on Equity: The pandemic's most enduring educational legacy threatens to be a massive increase in inequality. Therefore, all recovery funding and programs must be designed with an explicit focus on reaching the most marginalized students—the poor, girls, children with disabilities, and those in rural and conflict-affected areas. Counteracting the inequality-exacerbating effects of the pandemic is the most critical task in getting SDG 4 back on a more just and sustainable track.44

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