The Great Reversal: Charting the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on SDG 2 and the Global Fight Against Hunger

Section 1: The Global Mandate for Zero Hunger: A Comprehensive Framework

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development established a set of ambitious, interconnected goals for global progress. Among them, Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2) stands as a cornerstone, articulating a comprehensive vision to "End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture".1 This mandate extends far beyond the simple provision of calories, presenting a multifaceted framework that addresses the entire ecosystem of food, from production to consumption. Understanding this intricate structure is fundamental to appreciating the systemic and cascading nature of the shock inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal's design reveals a sophisticated understanding that hunger is not merely a problem of food availability but a complex challenge rooted in nutrition, economic access, agricultural practices, and global market structures. This holistic view provides a pre-built analytical framework for assessing the pandemic's impact, predicting that a systemic shock would create failures across all of its interconnected domains.

1.1 Deconstructing SDG 2: Beyond Hunger to a Multifaceted Vision

SDG 2 is built upon eight distinct targets, which collectively form a roadmap for transforming global food systems. These targets address four interconnected pillars: ending hunger, improving nutrition, ensuring the economic viability of producers, and promoting environmental sustainability.

The primary targets focus on the immediate human outcomes:

• Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure year-round access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food for all people, particularly the poor and those in vulnerable situations.1

• Target 2.2: By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition. This includes achieving the 2025 internationally agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children under five and addressing the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women, and older persons.1

Subsequent targets address the underlying systems of production and economics:

• Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, with a particular focus on women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists, and fishers.5

• Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity, maintain ecosystems, and strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change and extreme weather.4

• Target 2.5: By 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants, and farmed animals, including through well-managed seed and plant banks.1

Finally, a set of "means of implementation" targets address the enabling environment of investment and policy:

• Target 2.a: Increase investment in rural infrastructure, agricultural research, and technology development.1

• Target 2.b: Correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets.4

• Target 2.c: Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and limit extreme food price volatility.1

1.2 Key Performance Indicators: The Metrics of Success and Failure

Progress towards these ambitious targets is measured by a suite of specific, globally recognized indicators. These metrics provide the technical basis for assessing the state of global food security and are essential for understanding the quantitative impact of the pandemic.

• Tracking Hunger and Access (Target 2.1):

• Indicator 2.1.1: Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU). This is the headline indicator for chronic hunger. It estimates the proportion of the population whose habitual dietary energy consumption is insufficient to maintain a normal, active, and healthy life over a one-year period.1

• Indicator 2.1.2: Prevalence of Moderate or Severe Food Insecurity. Measured using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), this indicator captures a broader spectrum of hardship based on households' direct experiences, ranging from uncertainty about obtaining food and reducing diet quality to going entire days without eating.1

• Measuring Nutritional Outcomes (Target 2.2):

• Indicator 2.2.1: Stunting. Defined as a height-for-age more than two standard deviations below the WHO Child Growth Standards median ($<-2$ SD), stunting is a marker of chronic malnutrition. It has irreversible, long-term consequences for physical and cognitive development.1

• Indicator 2.2.2: Wasting and Overweight. This indicator captures the "double burden" of malnutrition. Wasting (weight-for-height $<-2$ SD) signifies acute malnutrition and is a life-threatening condition. Overweight (weight-for-height $>+2$ SD) is a growing problem that increases the risk of non-communicable diseases later in life.1

• Indicator 2.2.3: Anemia. This measures the prevalence of low hemoglobin concentrations in women of reproductive age (15-49), a critical indicator of micronutrient deficiencies that poses severe risks to both mothers and their children.1

• Assessing Producer Viability and Sustainability (Targets 2.3, 2.a, 2.c):

• Indicators 2.3.1 & 2.3.2: These track the volume of production per labor unit and the average income of small-scale food producers, providing crucial data on the economic well-being of the majority of the world's farmers.1

• Indicator 2.a.1: Agriculture Orientation Index (AOI). This measures government expenditure on agriculture relative to the sector's contribution to GDP, indicating the level of public investment and political commitment.2

• Indicator 2.c.1: Indicator of food price anomalies. This tracks extreme volatility in food commodity markets, a key driver of food insecurity for import-dependent countries and poor households.1

The interconnectedness of these targets is not incidental; it is the core logic of the goal. A fall in the income of small-scale producers (Target 2.3) directly impairs their ability to afford diverse, nutritious food, thereby worsening malnutrition (Target 2.2) and food insecurity (Target 2.1). Market volatility (Target 2.c) compounds this by making food unaffordable for the urban poor. This structure provides a clear map of where to look for the damage from a global shock like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Table 1: SDG 2 Targets and Key Indicators

Target

Target Description

Key Associated Indicators

2.1

By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people... to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round.

2.1.1 Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) 2.1.2 Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity (FIES)

2.2

By 2030, end all forms of malnutrition...

2.2.1 Prevalence of stunting (children <5) 2.2.2 Prevalence of wasting and overweight (children <5) 2.2.3 Prevalence of anaemia (women 15-49)

2.3

By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers...

2.3.1 Volume of production per labour unit 2.3.2 Average income of small-scale food producers

2.4

By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices...

Proportion of agricultural area under productive and sustainable agriculture

2.5

By 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals...

2.5.1 Number of plant/animal genetic resources in conservation facilities 2.5.2 Proportion of local breeds at risk of extinction

2.a

Increase investment... in rural infrastructure, agricultural research and extension services...

2.a.1 Agriculture orientation index for government expenditures

2.b

Correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets...

2.b.1 Producer Support Estimate 2.b.2 Agricultural export subsidies

2.c

Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets...

2.c.1 Indicator of food price anomalies

Section 2: The Pre-Pandemic Landscape (2015-2019): A Trajectory of Stalled Progress

To comprehend the full scale of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on global hunger, it is essential to establish a clear baseline of the world's trajectory leading up to 2020. The narrative of steady, linear progress toward Zero Hunger is a misconception. The period from 2015 to 2019 was not one of stagnation but of a dangerous reversal. After years of gains, the world was already losing ground in the fight against hunger, and the global food system was exhibiting signs of profound systemic fragility. This pre-existing vulnerability rendered the system acutely susceptible to the unprecedented shock that was to come.

2.1 The Reversal of Gains: Rising Hunger After 2015

The era of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) had seen significant progress. Globally, the prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) declined from 15% in the 2000-2002 period to 11% in 2014-2016.2 However, with the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, this positive trend stalled and then alarmingly reversed. The number of hungry people began to creep upward, driven by a toxic combination of intensifying conflict, increased climate variability and extremes, and economic slowdowns in many parts of the world.8

By 2019, on the eve of the pandemic, the situation had demonstrably worsened. The number of undernourished people had risen to almost 690 million, an increase of nearly 60 million people from the 2014 baseline.11 Data from the Global Hunger Index (GHI) corroborates this trend, showing a rise in the number of hungry people from 785 million in 2015 to 822 million in 2018.17

The broader measure of food insecurity painted an even more troubling picture. In 2019, an estimated 2 billion people, or 25.9% of the global population, experienced moderate or severe food insecurity. This was a significant increase from 22.4% in 2014. Within this group, around 750 million people faced severe food insecurity, meaning they had likely run out of food and, at worst, gone days without eating.19 The world was moving in the wrong direction, with hunger levels rising and access to adequate food diminishing for hundreds of millions before the pandemic began.

2.2 The Persistent "Triple Burden" of Malnutrition

Alongside rising hunger, the world was struggling to make meaningful progress against the complex challenge of malnutrition in all its forms. The "triple burden"—the coexistence of undernutrition (stunting and wasting), micronutrient deficiencies (like anemia), and overnutrition (overweight and obesity)—was deeply entrenched.

• Stunting: While the global prevalence of stunting among children under five had declined over the long term, progress was insufficient. In 2019, 144 million children (21.3%) were still affected by this chronic form of malnutrition.11 The burden was heavily concentrated, with three-quarters of all stunted children living in just two regions: Southern Asia (39%) and sub-Saharan Africa (36%).19

• Wasting: This acute, life-threatening form of malnutrition remained at alarming levels. In 2019, 47 million children under five (6.9%) suffered from wasting.11 This figure was far above the SDG target of reducing wasting to less than 3% by 2030, with Central and Southern Asia being the only region with a prevalence exceeding 10%.19

• Overweight: Simultaneously, the challenge of childhood overweight was growing, affecting 38.3 million children under five (5.6%) in 2019, up from 5% in 2000.2 This phenomenon, once considered a problem of wealthy nations, was increasingly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, creating a "double burden" where undernutrition and overnutrition coexisted within the same communities and even the same households.19

2.3 A Faltering Engine: Slowing Agricultural Productivity Growth

The supply side of the global food equation was also showing signs of strain. For decades, global agricultural output had expanded rapidly, driven primarily by increases in total factor productivity (TFP)—the measure of how efficiently land, labor, capital, and materials are used to produce crops and livestock.21 However, this critical engine of growth was sputtering.

According to data from the USDA Economic Research Service, global agricultural TFP growth fell sharply in the decade leading up to the pandemic. From 2011 to 2020, TFP grew at an average annual rate of just 1.12%. This represented a dramatic slowdown from the 1.99% average annual growth rate achieved in the previous decade (2001-2010).24 This deceleration was a critical, if often overlooked, vulnerability. With productivity growth no longer keeping pace, the world's ability to sustainably produce more food to meet the needs of a growing population was weakening. The confluence of these trends—a demand-side failure of access manifest in rising hunger, a food quality failure evident in persistent malnutrition, and a supply-side failure of slowing productivity—created a perfect storm of vulnerability. The global food system was losing its resilience before the pandemic arrived. This context reframes the pandemic not as the sole cause of the current crisis, but as a massive accelerant acting upon a system already in a state of escalating failure. A return to the "pre-pandemic normal" is therefore an insufficient goal, as that normal was already a state of crisis.

Section 3: The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systemic Shock to Global Food Security

The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a crisis of unprecedented scale and complexity, acting as a systemic shock that reverberated through every component of the global food system. Unlike previous food crises driven primarily by supply shortages, the pandemic's defining feature was a catastrophic collapse in economic access, which occurred even as global food supply chains, though severely stressed, did not entirely break. The crisis exposed a critical paradox: a global food system could prove resilient at the macro level of moving commodities, yet fail catastrophically at the micro level of ensuring households could afford to eat. The massive, albeit temporary, government responses that followed provided powerful lessons on the efficacy of social protection in mitigating hunger, while also revealing the deep economic precarity faced by hundreds of millions.

3.1 Disrupting the Flow: Impact on Agricultural Production and Supply Chains

The pandemic triggered simultaneous and compounding shocks to both the supply of and demand for food.25 National lockdowns, border closures, and social distancing measures created immediate and severe disruptions from farm to fork.

• Production and Labor: Movement restrictions led to acute labor shortages for planting, cultivation, and harvesting, disrupting production cycles for labor-intensive crops.27 Farm businesses, particularly in developed economies like the United States, faced significant operational challenges due to the reduced availability of essential workers.29

• Processing and Logistics: The food supply chain's intermediary stages proved to be critical bottlenecks. Outbreaks of COVID-19 in processing facilities, especially meatpacking plants, forced temporary shutdowns.27 This created a disastrous mismatch: farmers were left with livestock they could not sell, leading to culls and economic ruin, while consumers faced empty shelves and rising prices at retail outlets.30 Transport restrictions and logistical hurdles at borders slowed the movement of food, increasing costs and the risk of spoilage for perishable goods.27

• Market Shifts: The most dramatic disruption was the instantaneous collapse of the food service sector—restaurants, hotels, and schools—which accounts for a substantial portion of food consumption. This caused a massive and chaotic pivot in demand toward the retail grocery sector.30 Supply chains optimized for bulk deliveries to institutional buyers were ill-equipped to rapidly switch to consumer-sized packaging, leading to the perverse outcome of farmers dumping milk and plowing over vegetables while grocery stores struggled to restock staples.30

3.2 The Household Impact: A Crisis of Economic Access

While supply chains bent, the primary driver of the pandemic-induced hunger crisis was the brutal economic fallout that rendered food unaffordable for millions. It was fundamentally a crisis of access, not of absolute availability.25

• Income Shocks: The global recession triggered by the pandemic was swift and deep. Soaring unemployment, loss of livelihoods, and reduced remittances decimated household purchasing power.25 The World Bank projected that the pandemic's economic impact could push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020 alone.35

• Food Price Volatility: The crisis was compounded by rising food prices. Initial panic buying and hoarding stripped shelves and drove up costs for storable goods.27 These initial demand shocks were followed by sustained price inflation as supply chain disruptions, higher transport costs, and currency devaluations in emerging markets took their toll.36 The cost of a healthy diet, already out of reach for many, became even more unaffordable. Prior to the pandemic, over 3 billion people could not afford a healthy diet; the economic crisis pushed this number even higher.12

• Skyrocketing Food Insecurity: The impact on households was immediate and devastating. Surveys conducted in the early months of the pandemic revealed a dramatic surge in food insecurity. In the United States, for example, the prevalence of food insecurity tripled compared to the previous year 41, with one survey finding that 27% of households with children were frequently unable to afford enough food.42 This crisis disproportionately affected low-income households, racial and ethnic minorities, and families with children.43

3.3 Quantifying the Surge in Hunger and Malnutrition

The confluence of these factors led to a catastrophic increase in global hunger. Early projections from UN agencies were grim, with a preliminary assessment suggesting the pandemic could add between 83 and 132 million people to the ranks of the undernourished in 2020.18 The World Food Programme (WFP) warned in April 2020 that the number of people facing acute hunger (crisis level or worse) could nearly double from 135 million to 265 million by the end of the year.35 The pandemic also threatened to reverse years of progress in child nutrition, with models projecting that economic disruptions could push an additional 9.3 to 13.6 million children into suffering from acute malnutrition, or wasting.34

3.4 Global and National Responses: A Massive but Temporary Shield

In response to the escalating crisis, governments and international organizations mobilized an unprecedented array of support programs.

• International Efforts: The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) launched a comprehensive $1.3 billion COVID-19 Response and Recovery Programme. It focused on seven priority areas, including strengthening data for decision-making, expanding social protection, facilitating trade, and bolstering humanitarian response to prevent a global food emergency.31

• National Social Protection: Many nations rapidly scaled up their social safety nets. The United States provides a powerful case study. The creation of the Pandemic Electronic Benefit Transfer (P-EBT) program, which provided grocery vouchers to families who lost access to free or reduced-price school meals, alongside significant temporary increases to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, proved highly effective. Research showed these measures led to a significant decrease in food insufficiency—by as much as 30%—and were also associated with improvements in maternal mental health.41

• Agricultural Support: To stabilize the production side, governments provided direct financial assistance to farmers and agricultural businesses. In the U.S., the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) and forgivable loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) disbursed tens of billions of dollars to farm operations to offset market disruptions and increased costs.29

The temporary success of these massive social protection programs in blunting the worst of the food security crisis offers a crucial lesson. They demonstrated that large-scale, direct economic support is one of the most effective tools for fighting hunger during an economic shock. However, the sharp rebound in food insecurity observed as soon as these emergency benefits expired revealed a deeper truth: these measures were a lifeline, not a structural fix. They treated the symptom—a lack of access to food—but not the underlying disease of precarious livelihoods and deep-seated economic inequality. The pandemic laid bare the reality that a vast segment of the population, even in the world's wealthiest nations, lives just one crisis away from hunger.

Table 2: The Multifaceted Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Systems

Food System Component

Key Disruptions

Observed Consequences

Production

Labor shortages due to lockdowns and illness; movement restrictions.

Delayed planting and harvesting; reduced output of labor-intensive crops; increased farm-level costs.

Processing & Logistics

Plant closures due to outbreaks; transport bottlenecks; border restrictions.

Supply chain interruptions (e.g., meatpacking); increased food loss and waste; higher transportation costs.

Retail & Markets

Sudden collapse of food service sector; surge in retail grocery demand; panic buying.

Mismatches between supply chains and consumer demand; retail stockouts alongside producer surplus; initial price spikes.

Household Consumption

Mass unemployment and income loss; rising food prices; school closures.

Drastically reduced purchasing power; decreased affordability of healthy diets; loss of access to school meals; sharp increase in food insecurity and malnutrition.

Section 4: The Post-Pandemic Reality: Compounding Crises and a Widening Deficit

The world has not returned to its pre-2020 trajectory in the fight against hunger. Instead, it has entered a new, more perilous phase characterized by a "polycrisis," where the economic scars of the pandemic are compounded by escalating conflict, accelerating climate shocks, and persistent inflation. The modest global recovery in food security is fragile, dangerously uneven, and wholly insufficient to get back on track for the 2030 goals. The defining feature of this new era is the synchronization of crises. The pandemic acted as a universal stressor, weakening the economic resilience of nearly all countries. Now, new and intensifying regional crises are landing on this globally weakened foundation, creating a dynamic where shocks that might have been localized before now have a greater potential to trigger cascading global failures. The system has lost its shock absorbers, leaving the entire world more vulnerable.

4.1 The Lingering Scars: Entrenched Hunger and Persistent Inflation

The surge in hunger during the pandemic has not receded. While global hunger levels have declined slightly from their peak in 2021-2022, they remain far above pre-pandemic baselines.

• Entrenched Hunger: In 2024, an estimated 673 million people, or 8.2% of the world's population, faced chronic hunger. This is a modest improvement from 8.7% in 2022 but is still substantially higher than the 613 million people affected in 2019 before the pandemic.49 Shockingly, the world is back at hunger levels not seen since 2005.8

• Widespread Food Insecurity: The broader measure of food insecurity tells a similar story. In 2024, approximately 2.3 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity. This represents an staggering 335 million more people than in 2019.50

• Persistent Food Price Inflation: A key factor hampering recovery is that food price inflation has remained stubbornly high, consistently outpacing overall inflation in many countries since 2020.53 This has been particularly severe in low-income countries, where food inflation peaked at 30% in May 2023.53 This sustained pressure on food prices has kept healthy diets out of reach for billions. In 2024, an estimated 2.6 billion people were unable to afford a healthy diet, a number that, while down from its 2019 peak, has actually increased in low-income countries.50

4.2 The "Polycrisis": The Compounding Impact of Conflict, Climate, and Economic Woes

The pandemic's legacy is now inextricably linked with other global drivers of hunger, creating a vicious cycle where each crisis amplifies the others.

• Conflict: Conflict remains the single largest driver of acute hunger.55 An estimated 70% of the world's acutely food-insecure population lives in fragile or conflict-affected countries.56 The 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia sent shockwaves through global markets for wheat, vegetable oils, and fertilizers, exacerbating the food price inflation that began during the pandemic and hitting import-dependent nations particularly hard.34 Meanwhile, ongoing and intensifying conflicts in places like Sudan, the Gaza Strip, Yemen, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali are pushing millions to the brink of starvation, with catastrophic levels of hunger (IPC Phase 5 Famine or Famine-like conditions) being declared or projected.57

• Climate Change: The climate crisis is no longer a future threat but a present-day driver of hunger. Extreme weather events, including devastating droughts in the Horn of Africa and severe floods in Pakistan and Southern Africa, are becoming more frequent and intense, destroying crops, killing livestock, and disrupting livelihoods.55 The world is approaching critical climate tipping points, such as the collapse of warm-water coral reefs and threats to the Amazon rainforest, which would have catastrophic consequences for global food security.61

• Economic Downturn and Funding Gaps: The global economic environment remains challenging. Sluggish growth, high debt burdens in many low-income countries, and currency depreciation limit governments' ability to fund social safety nets.55 Compounding this, humanitarian funding is facing severe cuts. The WFP, for example, has faced funding shortfalls of up to 40%, forcing it to scale back life-saving assistance for tens of millions of people at a time of unprecedented need.50

4.3 A World Diverging: Deepening Regional Inequalities

The fragile global recovery is dangerously uneven, creating a world splitting onto two different tracks and exacerbating global inequalities. While some regions have seen modest improvements, others are falling deeper into crisis.

• Uneven Recovery: Asia and Latin America have driven the slight global decline in hunger post-pandemic. In Asia, the prevalence of undernourishment fell from 7.9% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2024, and in Latin America and the Caribbean, it fell to 5.1%.50

• Deterioration in Africa and Western Asia: In stark contrast, hunger has continued to rise across most of Africa and in Western Asia.52 Africa is now the epicentre of the global hunger crisis, with the proportion of the population facing hunger surpassing 20% in 2024, affecting 307 million people.49 This regional divergence is a defining and alarming feature of the post-pandemic landscape.

The following table provides a stark, quantitative summary of this "Great Reversal"—the profound setback in the global fight against hunger and malnutrition from the pre-pandemic baseline to the most recent available data.

Table 3: Global Hunger and Malnutrition Indicators: Pre-Pandemic vs. Current Status

Indicator

2019 Baseline (Pre-Pandemic)

2024 Status (Latest Data)

Change

Prevalence of Undernourishment

8.9% (almost 690 million) 18

8.2% (673 million) 50

-0.7 p.p. but still ~60M more people than 2019 mid-range 49

Prevalence of Moderate or Severe Food Insecurity

25.9% (2.0 billion) 19

~28% (2.3 billion) 52

+~2.1 p.p. (+335 million people vs 2019) 50

Number Unable to Afford a Healthy Diet

~3.1 billion (2019/2021 data) 12

2.6 billion 50

Decrease globally, but increase in low-income countries 50

Stunting (children <5)

21.3% (144.0 million) 11

23.2% (150.2 million) 8

+1.9 p.p. (+6.2 million children)

Wasting (children <5)

6.9% (47.0 million) 11

6.6% (42.8 million) 8

-0.3 p.p. (-4.2 million children)

Overweight (children <5)

5.6% (38.3 million) 11

5.5% (35.5 million) 8

-0.1 p.p. (-2.8 million children)

Note: 2019 and 2024 figures may come from different annual reports with slight methodological adjustments; the table reflects the best available data from the provided sources for a comparative snapshot. The number of undernourished in 2019 was later revised down from initial estimates, but the trend of a sharp increase during the pandemic remains clear.

Section 5: Navigating the Path to 2030: Challenges, Imperatives, and Strategic Recommendations

The combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent polycrisis have dealt a devastating blow to the global ambition of achieving Zero Hunger by 2030. The world is now profoundly off track, and the pre-pandemic strategies, which were already proving insufficient, are now wholly inadequate for the challenges of this new era. The crisis, however, has also yielded critical lessons. It has underscored that in an age of synchronized global shocks, systemic resilience is not merely a component of the food security agenda; it must become its new, non-negotiable foundation. Rescuing SDG 2 requires a paradigm shift from a narrow focus on incremental efficiency gains to a comprehensive strategy centered on building resilience—of agricultural systems to climate shocks, of households to economic shocks, and of global markets to geopolitical shocks.

5.1 Reassessing the 2030 Target: A Goal in Jeopardy

The data presents a sobering reality: the goal of ending hunger by 2030 is in serious jeopardy.6 Projections based on current trends indicate that the world will miss the target by a wide margin. It is estimated that nearly 600 million people will still be facing hunger in 2030.8 The regional divergence is particularly alarming, with forecasts suggesting that Africa will be home to a growing majority of the world's chronically undernourished population.54 Reversing this trajectory will require an intense and immediate global effort on a scale not yet seen.

5.2 Lessons from the Pandemic: The Imperative of Resilience

The pandemic served as a global stress test, revealing both the vulnerabilities and potential strengths of our food systems. Two key lessons have emerged with stark clarity:

1. The Centrality of Resilient Food Systems: The crisis highlighted the fragility of long, complex, and highly concentrated global supply chains. It underscored the urgent need to build more resilient food systems by promoting diversified local and regional production, shortening supply chains, and investing in infrastructure that can withstand shocks.69

2. The Proven Power of Social Safety Nets: The pandemic demonstrated unequivocally that robust social protection systems are one of the most effective tools for safeguarding food security during economic crises. The success of programs that provided direct cash or in-kind transfers to households proved that protecting purchasing power is critical.41 The key lesson is the need to transform these emergency measures into permanent, adaptive, and scalable systems that can be rapidly deployed to protect the most vulnerable from future shocks.8

5.3 Strategic Imperatives for Rescuing SDG 2

Synthesizing the analysis of the past decade, a multi-pronged strategy is required to get the world back on a path toward Zero Hunger. This strategy must be built on the foundation of resilience.

• Invest in Sustainable Agriculture and Small-Scale Producers: Efforts must be redoubled to support the world's small-scale food producers, who produce a significant portion of the world's food but are often among the most food insecure themselves.5 This requires increasing investment in rural infrastructure, research, and extension services, and ensuring smallholders have secure access to land, credit, technology, and markets.7

• Transform Food Systems for Healthy Diets: The global focus must shift from simply producing sufficient calories to ensuring access to sufficient nutrition. This involves a fundamental transformation of food systems to make healthy diets more available and affordable. A critical step is to analyze and repurpose the nearly $630 billion in annual government support to agriculture, shifting subsidies away from market-distorting staple grains and toward incentivizing the production of more nutrient-rich foods like fruits, vegetables, and legumes.53

• Strengthen Conflict Resolution and Humanitarian Action: With conflict now the primary driver of acute food insecurity, there can be no food security without peace. Development efforts must be integrated with peacebuilding initiatives. Simultaneously, humanitarian assistance is a vital lifeline that prevents mass starvation. The international community must reverse the trend of declining funding and ensure that organizations like the WFP have the resources needed to respond to catastrophic hunger and prevent famine.54

• Integrate Climate Action and Food Security: Food systems are both a contributor to and a victim of climate change. A massive scaling-up of investment in climate-smart agriculture is essential. This includes promoting drought-resistant crops, improving water management, and expanding access to climate information services and insurance to help farmers adapt to and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather.55

• Enhance Global Cooperation and Data Systems: In an interconnected world, unilateral actions can have devastating consequences. Nations must commit to keeping food and agricultural trade open, avoiding protectionist measures like export bans that exacerbate global price volatility.4 Furthermore, investment in robust, timely, and transparent data systems is critical for monitoring food security, providing early warnings of impending crises, and guiding evidence-based policy responses.53

The pandemic was a wake-up call. It did not just delay progress toward SDG 2; it exposed the inherent fragility of a system that was already failing. The path forward cannot be a return to the past. It must be a deliberate and strategic pivot toward building a global food system that is not only productive and efficient but also equitable, sustainable, and, above all, resilient.

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