The Business as Usual Scenario and Our Collective Future: Breaking Patterns Through Belief and Action
Introduction to the 'Business as Usual' Scenario
The 'Business as Usual' scenario was a predictive model developed in 1972 by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) as part of their work on "Limits to Growth". This model aimed to answer a critical question: what would happen if humanity continued to pursue economic growth regardless of environmental and societal costs? The answer was sobering - without drastic change, industrial society was headed for collapse. Using empirical data, the World3 model (as it was called) concluded that unchecked growth would inevitably lead to decline in industrial capital, agricultural output, and welfare levels within this century. The model tracked population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. Recent analysis by KPMG's Gaya Herrington found that the 1972 model's predictions are alarmingly on track, suggesting that without intervention, global civilization could face economic decline within a decade and potential societal collapse by around 2040.
The Psychology of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
This grim trajectory relates to the psychological concept of self-fulfilling prophecies – expectations that influence behaviors in ways that cause those expectations to become reality. When we believe something will happen, we often unconsciously act in ways that make that outcome more likely. This psychological phenomenon can apply both positively and negatively. If we collectively believe that societal collapse is inevitable, we might not take necessary actions to prevent it, thus making the collapse more likely. Conversely, positive expectations can motivate actions that lead to better outcomes. Breaking free from negative self-fulfilling prophecies requires awareness of our expectations and deliberate efforts to change our patterns of behavior. This is especially critical for issues like substance abuse, mental health disorders, and by extension, our collective approach to environmental challenges.
The UN Principles on Human Environment and the 27th Principle
In 1972, the same year as the MIT study, the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment established 26 principles that recognized the finite nature of Earth's resources and human impacts on the environment. These principles sought to address the relationship between economic growth, environmental pollution, and human well-being. The Stockholm Declaration urged nations to reduce air, land, and water degradation while creating regulations on wildlife protection, environmental conservation, and population control. Twenty years later, in 1992, the Rio Declaration added a 27th principle stating: "States and people shall co-operate in good faith and in a spirit of partnership in the fulfilment of the principles embodied in this Declaration and in the further development of international law in the field of sustainable development". This principle emphasized that mutual trust and partnership are essential for addressing global environmental challenges. The Earth Summit in Rio produced several important outcomes, including the Rio Declaration with its 27 universal principles, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the principles of forest management.
Total Football: A Metaphor for Humanity's Challenge
The concept of Total Football offers an illuminating metaphor for how humanity might approach collective challenges. Developed in the Netherlands during the 1970s under coaches Rinus Michels and Johan Cruyff, Total Football revolutionized soccer strategy. This tactical system emphasized versatility, fluidity, and teamwork, with players being capable of assuming any position on the field as the game demands. The core philosophy revolves around players taking ownership of their roles within the team and working together to achieve common goals. Total Football demands high awareness levels, with players required to understand the game's flow, anticipate changes, and adapt their roles accordingly. It's not merely about individual skill but about collective intelligence and coordination.
The Challenge of Awareness and Coordination Among Billions
While Total Football works brilliantly with eleven players on a team, implementing similar awareness and coordination among over 8 billion people presents an overwhelming challenge. The scale of humanity's environmental challenges is immense – we're currently experiencing the sixth mass extinction event, where species are disappearing at rates 100 to 1,000 times faster than the normal background rate. Human activities, including deforestation, pollution, overhunting, and climate change, are driving this extinction crisis. Since 1972, the world has lost 70% of its natural wetlands, and over three billion people depend on marine and coastal biodiversity for their livelihoods. Climate change is causing long-lasting changes to our climate system, threatening irreversible consequences without immediate action. Coordinating global response to these threats requires unprecedented levels of cooperation and mutual trust.
The 27th Principle: Belief in Each Other as Catalyst for Change
The 27th principle of the Rio Declaration represents a crucial catalyst for change in our approach to environmental challenges. By emphasizing cooperation in good faith and partnership, it recognizes that technical solutions alone are insufficient without trust between nations and peoples. This principle acknowledges that mutual belief is essential for developing and implementing international law for sustainable development. In a 2021 global consultation conducted by the UN, 97% of respondents supported international cooperation to tackle global challenges, indicating widespread recognition of our interconnectedness. Research shows that a majority of people across countries agree that their nations should take other countries' interests into account when making policy decisions. This recognition of interdependence provides a foundation for the mutual trust called for in the 27th principle.
Learning from COVID-19: The Gap Between Rhetoric and Action
The COVID-19 pandemic provided a stark illustration of how rhetoric about unity can diverge from action. The slogan "We're all in this together" became a worldwide rallying cry, but in practice, many actions prioritized economic concerns over protecting the most vulnerable populations. Waves of social media scolding criticized individual behavior while larger systemic issues went unaddressed. The pandemic revealed how fear-driven responses can lead to self-protection rather than collective welfare. Many celebrities and brands adopted the "we're all in this together" message while failing to recognize the disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged communities. As Lady Gaga noted, there was a significant disconnect between the experiences of those in comfortable positions and those in vulnerable situations, such as women in abusive relationships who lost jobs and couldn't feed their children. This disconnect exemplifies how self-fulfilling prophecies based on fear can create downward spirals of inequality.
Protecting the Vulnerable: Breaking the Pattern
To break free from negative self-fulfilling prophecies, we need approaches that prioritize the most vulnerable rather than the most powerful. This requires acknowledging three stages of breaking patterns: awareness of our behavioral patterns, acceptance of their detrimental nature, and taking action to change them. Research indicates it takes approximately 66 days for an act to become a habit or pattern of behavior, suggesting that patience and persistence are essential for meaningful change. We must recognize that in addressing global challenges like climate change and biodiversity loss, protecting the most vulnerable communities first creates more resilient societies overall. Scientists and conservationists call for immediate political, economic, and social action on unprecedented scales to prevent further extinctions and resulting societal crises. Without such action, we risk losing thousands of species and myriad populations of wildlife, with devastating consequences for ecosystem services that support human life.
Agenda 2030: Equality at the Heart of Sustainable Development
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development places equality at its core. Adopted by all UN member states in 2015, it provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent an urgent call for action by all countries in a global partnership. Gender equality (SDG 5) is both a standalone goal and an essential element for achieving all other goals. Women earn only 77 cents for every dollar that men get for the same work, 35% of women have experienced physical and/or sexual violence, and women represent just 13% of agricultural landholders. Addressing these inequalities is not only a matter of justice but essential for sustainable development. Beyond gender, the SDGs aim to reduce all forms of inequality, recognizing that ending poverty and other deprivations must go hand-in-hand with improving health and education while tackling climate change and preserving ecosystems.
Biblical Parallels: The Last Shall Be First
The emphasis on equality and protecting the vulnerable finds parallels in biblical teachings about the Kingdom of God. Biblical passages emphasize that all humans, regardless of race, ethnicity, or skin color, are created in God's image and deserve equal dignity and respect. The concept that "there is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither bond nor free, there is neither male nor female: for ye are all one in Christ Jesus" (Galatians 3:28) exemplifies the inclusivity of God's kingdom. This theological perspective challenges hierarchical thinking and encourages prioritizing the needs of others. Jesus's parable of the laborers in the vineyard, where workers hired at different times all receive the same wage, illustrates radical equality in God's kingdom. The notion that "the last will be first" suggests a reordering of priorities that places the needs of the marginalized at the center of community life. This reframing of selflessness as ultimately beneficial for all resonates with modern understandings of sustainable development and collective welfare.
Achieving the SDGs Through Collective Action and Belief
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals requires unprecedented cooperation and belief in our collective capacity for change. Research comparing the SDGs with subjective well-being measures reveals that most SDGs correlate positively with human well-being at the global level. However, two environmental goals – responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) and climate action (SDG 13) – show negative correlations with current well-being, suggesting potential short-term trade-offs. This highlights the challenge of decoupling human well-being from environmental impact. Overcoming these challenges requires approaches that consider both current and future well-being. Some countries like Costa Rica demonstrate that it's possible to achieve high levels of well-being while maintaining relatively sustainable consumption patterns. Such examples suggest pathways where collective action based on mutual trust can create win-win scenarios.
Conclusion: Transforming Patterns Through Belief and Action
Breaking free from the "Business as Usual" scenario requires transforming our patterns of thought and action through mutual belief and collective effort. The 27th principle's emphasis on good faith and partnership provides a foundation for this transformation. Like players in a Total Football system, we must develop awareness of our interdependence and willingness to adapt our roles for collective success. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the dangers of allowing rhetoric about unity to diverge from actions that protect the most vulnerable. Moving forward, we must ensure our actions align with our stated values, particularly regarding equality and protection of the marginalized. The biblical concept that "the last shall be first" offers a profound reframing of selflessness as ultimately beneficial for all. By believing in each other and acting on that belief, we can redirect our collective trajectory away from the collapse predicted in the "Business as Usual" scenario toward a more sustainable and equitable future. The choice before us is not whether to change but how to change in ways that honor our interdependence and shared humanity.
