China and Russia
Bilateral trade between Russia and China expanded significantly after 2015, reaching $110 billion by 2021 and exceeding $200 billion by 2023. This growth was driven by energy exports and bilateral agreements aimed at reducing reliance on Western financial systems [1].
Deepened Energy Cooperation
- In 2015, Russia’s state-owned Rosneft and Gazprom signed agreements to supply oil and gas to China, including construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which began operations in 2019 [1].
- Following Western sanctions after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, energy exports to China surged, making Russia China’s largest oil supplier by mid-2022 [1][22].
Strategic Military and Defense Partnerships
- Russia and China intensified joint military exercises, including Peace Mission counterterrorism drills and naval exercises in the South China Sea and Mediterranean [33][36].
- Russia sold advanced weaponry to China, such as S-400 air defense systems and Su-35 fighter jets, marking a shift from earlier reluctance over technology transfers [33][36].
Multilateral Coordination
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) became a key platform for Russia and China to counterbalance Western influence. Both supported initiatives to expand the use of local currencies in trade and promoted alternatives to the SWIFT payment system [63].
- In 2022, they jointly opposed UN resolutions condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, highlighting alignment in authoritarian governance principles [80].
Diplomatic and Economic Alignment
- High-level meetings, such as Xi Jinping’s 2015 visit to Russia, emphasized “win-win cooperation” and led to cybersecurity agreements and infrastructure investments [11][17].
- By 2023, over 90% of bilateral trade was conducted in yuan and rubles, reducing dependency on the US dollar [1][27].
Post-2022 Sanction Evasion Efforts
- China became Russia’s critical lifeline after Western sanctions, supplying dual-use technologies like microelectronics and drone components for military use [1]. The EU sanctioned Chinese firms in 2023 for aiding Russia’s defense sector [1].
Challenges and Asymmetries
- Despite economic interdependence, Russia’s reliance on China grew disproportionately, with Chinese imports filling gaps left by Western sanctions [22][27]. Some Russian experts expressed concern over China’s expanding influence in Central Asia and the Russian Far East [21].
The relationship evolved into a pragmatic, though unequal, partnership centered on mutual opposition to US hegemony, while balancing territorial and economic sensitivities [80].
Major Joint Naval Exercises
- Ocean-2024: Russia’s largest naval drill in 30 years, held in September 2024, involved 400 warships, 120 aircraft, and 90,000 personnel, with Chinese participation near Japan and Alaska.
- Joint Sea 2016: Conducted in the South China Sea after an international tribunal rejected China’s territorial claims, simulating island-seizure operations [2].
- Anti-Submarine Drills: Held in the Pacific in 2024 to enhance detection and neutralization of enemy submarines [2].
- Joint Patrols Near Alaska: Bombers from both nations entered U.S. air defense zones, coming within 200 miles of Alaska’s coast in 2024 [2][3].
Strategic Aerial and Ground Collaboration
- Aerial Patrols Over Sea of Japan (2022): Provoked Japanese and South Korean air defenses during the Quad Leaders’ Summit [2].
- East China Sea Live-Fire Exercises (2022): Conducted after Japan announced defense budget increases targeting China [2].
- Arctic Collaboration: Joint Arctic patrols and icebreaker deployments to secure shipping routes [2][6].
Counterterrorism and SCO-Led Drills
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Exercises: Annual “Peace Mission” drills focused on counterterrorism, including Peace Mission-2021 in Russia targeting Taliban-like threats [9][10].
- Multilateral Exercises with Iran and Others: Expanded to include nations like Iran and North Korea in Middle Eastern and Arctic exercises [2].
Timeline of Escalation
- 2016–2024: Exercises grew in complexity and geographic scope, moving from regional waters to the Mediterranean, Arctic, and U.S. ally territories.
- Post-2022: Drills intensified after Western sanctions over Ukraine, with joint operations near Japan, Alaska, and the South China Sea [3][6].
Objectives and Strategic Messaging
- Deterrence: Exercises near Japan, Alaska, and the South China Sea aimed to “intimidate the West and its allies” [2][6].
- Interoperability: Focused on improving coordination despite lacking NATO-style integration [3][5].
Notable Stats
- Over 80% of exercises occurred after 2017, with 11 exercises in 2024 alone [2][3].
- Naval drills in the South China Sea and East China Sea directly challenged U.S. allies like the Philippines and Japan [2][5].
Russia and China frame these exercises as “non-alignment,” but analysts describe them as a gathering authoritarian challenge to U.S. alliances [2][3].
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