Systemic Airspace Risk in the Southern Caribbean: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Civil-Military Interface During Operation Southern Spear (December 2025)
Executive Summary
In December 2025, the airspace overlying the Southern Caribbean—specifically the Flight Information Regions (FIRs) encompassing Curaçao, Aruba, and the maritime boundary with Venezuela—devolved into a theater of acute operational risk. Within a critical twenty-four-hour window between December 12 and December 13, two separate near-midair collisions (Airprox) occurred involving civilian aircraft and United States Air Force (USAF) aerial refueling tankers. These incidents, involving JetBlue Flight 1112 and a private Dassault Falcon 900EX (registration N888ZA), were not isolated anomalies of airmanship but symptomatic manifestations of a saturated and uncoordinated airspace environment resulting from "Operation Southern Spear."
This report provides an exhaustive examination of these events, situating them at the intersection of high-tempo kinetic military operations and dense civil aviation corridors. The analysis posits that the simultaneous execution of a naval blockade strategy, aggressive aerial interdiction of narcotics vessels, and the projection of force against the Venezuelan government has created a "Grey Zone" operational environment. In this zone, the doctrine of "Due Regard"—which permits state aircraft to operate outside of Air Traffic Control (ATC) oversight—has catastrophically failed to ensure the safety of civilian navigation.
The following comprehensive study dissects the forensic details of the near-misses, the technical specifications of the collision avoidance systems that were rendered ineffective, the strategic contours of the U.S. military buildup, and the profound legal, geopolitical, and economic ramifications for the Kingdom of the Netherlands and the wider Caribbean region.
1. The Anatomy of the Incidents: A Forensic Reconstruction
The events of mid-December 2025 represent a critical breakdown in the segregation of military and civil airspace. While military operations often coexist with civil traffic under strictly regulated protocols, the specific operational posture employed during these incidents—characterized by the deactivation of secondary surveillance radar transponders in high-density terminal maneuvering areas—created a failure mode that modern Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance Systems (TCAS) were technically unable to mitigate.
1.1 JetBlue Flight 1112: The Intersection of Commerce and Conflict
On Friday, December 12, 2025, the fragile separation between holiday tourism traffic and military operations collapsed off the coast of Venezuela. JetBlue Flight 1112, an Airbus A320-232, departed Curaçao International Airport (CUR/TNCC) bound for John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York.1 This route is a critical artery for the Dutch Caribbean economy, facilitating the flow of North American tourists to the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao).
1.1.1 The Operational Flight Profile
The departure from Hato International Airport typically involves a northward climb, initially transiting the airspace between the Venezuelan coast and the islands before turning towards the Atlantic sectors. At the time of the incident, meteorological conditions were visual (VMC), which proved to be the only saving grace for the 150+ souls on board.
According to preliminary data and Air Traffic Control (ATC) voice recordings, the aircraft was in its initial climb phase, passing through an altitude block typically assigned to departing traffic. The aircraft was approximately 40 to 64 kilometers (25 to 40 miles) north of the Venezuelan coast, a region that serves as the boundary between the Curaçao FIR and the Maiquetía FIR (SVZM).3
1.1.2 The Conflict Geometry and Evasive Action
As the Airbus A320 ascended, the flight crew visually acquired a large, heavy aircraft on a converging vector at their altitude. The intruder was not displayed on the Navigation Display (ND) or the Primary Flight Display (PFD) traffic overlay.
The Pilot in Command (PIC) immediately initiated an abrupt "stop climb" maneuver—arresting the aircraft's vertical velocity to zero to pass beneath the converging traffic. This is a non-standard and hazardous maneuver during a heavy departure phase, as it disrupts the aircraft's energy management and deviates from the cleared Standard Instrument Departure (SID) profile, potentially creating secondary conflicts with other traffic in the departure funnel.
Immediately following the maneuver, the pilot contacted the Curaçao sector controller with palpable urgency:
"We just had traffic pass directly in front of us within 5 miles of us — maybe 2 or 3 miles — but it was an air-to-air refueler from the United States Air Force and he was at our altitude. We had to stop our climb." 5
The proximity reported—"2 or 3 miles"—at closing speeds prevalent in jet aviation (where a combined closure rate can exceed 800 knots, or 1,350 feet per second) allows for less than 15 seconds of reaction time once visual contact is made. The pilot further articulated the severity of the systemic failure:
"They passed directly in our flight path... They don't have their transponder turned on. It's outrageous." 7
The flight crew explicitly identified the aircraft as a U.S. Air Force tanker, likely a KC-135 Stratotanker or the newer KC-46 Pegasus, noting that after the near-collision, the military aircraft turned south, entering Venezuelan airspace.7
1.1.3 The Failure of the Safety Net: TCAS and Transponders
The outrage expressed by the JetBlue pilot stems from the deliberate negation of the aviation safety net. Modern transport category aircraft rely on the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System II (TCAS II). This system functions by interrogating the transponders (Mode C or Mode S) of nearby aircraft.
Mechanism of Failure: TCAS requires a cooperative target. It sends an interrogation signal (1030 MHz), and the target aircraft's transponder replies (1090 MHz). Based on the round-trip time and altitude data encoded in the reply, TCAS calculates the "Time to Closest Point of Approach" (tau).
The "Cone of Silence": Because the USAF tanker was operating with its transponder set to "Standby" or completely deactivated (a condition known as EMCON, or Emissions Control), the JetBlue A320’s TCAS computer received no replies. Consequently, it could not generate a "Traffic Advisory" (TA) to alert the crew to look for the aircraft, nor could it generate a "Resolution Advisory" (RA) to command a vertical evasion (e.g., "DESCEND, DESCEND").
Radar Blindness: The incident also revealed a critical gap in the ground-based surveillance infrastructure. When the pilot reported the near-miss, the Curaçao air traffic controller replied: "Yes, I don't have anything on my scope… you are totally right sir. It has been outrageous with the unidentified aircraft within our air.".5 This confirms that the civilian ATC radar feeds in the region are heavily dependent on Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR), which requires active transponders. Primary Surveillance Radar (PSR), which detects aircraft via radio wave reflection (skin paint), was either absent, lacking coverage at that specific location/altitude, or the military aircraft's cross-section was filtered out by clutter processing algorithms.
The pilot's closing remark, "We almost had a mid-air collision up here" 7, underscores that the survival of the flight depended entirely on the "See and Avoid" principle—a method widely regarded by aviation safety regulators as insufficient for high-speed jet transport, particularly in complex airspace.
1.2 Private Jet N888ZA: A Corroborating Pattern
Less than 24 hours after the JetBlue incident, a second near-miss occurred, dispelling any notion that the first event was a singular error by a rogue crew. This second incident involved a different class of aircraft but an identical failure mode, establishing a pattern of systemic negligence in airspace management.
1.2.1 Aircraft and Mission Profile
The aircraft involved was a Dassault Falcon 900EX, bearing registration N888ZA. Manufactured in 2007 (MSN 172) and operated by JHB Aviation LLC, this tri-jet corporate aircraft is equipped with advanced avionics comparable to commercial airliners.10
Departure Point: Aruba-Reina Beatrix Airport (AUA/TNCA).
Destination: Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport (OPF/KOPF), Florida.
Time of Departure: 20:29 UTC on Saturday, December 13, 2025.10
1.2.2 The Encounter
At 20:39 UTC, exactly ten minutes into the flight, the Falcon 900EX was climbing through Flight Level 230 (approximately 23,000 feet) en route to its cruising altitude. The aircraft was located approximately 38 nautical miles north of Aruba, placing it firmly within the Curaçao FIR and on a standard northerly departure track.10
Here, the crew encountered a U.S. Air Force tanker, identified likely as a Boeing KC-46 Pegasus, the military variant of the Boeing 767.10
1.2.3 The "Missing RA" Phenomenon
The Flight Safety Foundation and Aviation Safety Network data regarding this incident highlight a chilling detail in the pilot's reaction. The crew was recorded stating:
"I wonder why we didn't get an RA for that".10
This statement is technically significant. It implies that the crew visually perceived a collision threat that was acute enough to warrant a TCAS Resolution Advisory (RA). In a functional system, an RA would be triggered 20 to 30 seconds prior to the closest point of approach. The absence of an RA confirms that the KC-46, like the tanker in the JetBlue incident, was "non-cooperative"—operating without an active transponder in International Airspace (high seas) but directly intersecting a published civil airway.
This second incident validates the assessment that U.S. military assets were routinely operating in "stealth" mode regarding electronic conspicuity, despite being large, non-stealthy airframes physically, thereby creating essentially "invisible" obstacles for automated safety systems.
2. The Operational Context: Operation Southern Spear
To understand why U.S. heavy military aircraft were loitering in civil airways without transponders, one must examine the operational imperative driving their presence. These incidents were collateral damage of Operation Southern Spear, a massive, multi-domain U.S. military campaign focused on the Caribbean basin.
2.1 Strategic Objectives and Escalation
Officially, Operation Southern Spear was launched in November 2025 as a "counter-narcotics" mission with the stated goal of "eliminating narcoterrorists" and dismantling the "Cartel of the Suns," an alleged drug trafficking organization embedded within the Venezuelan government and military.12
However, the scale and nature of the deployment suggest a dual-purpose strategy:
Narcotics Interdiction: A lethal, kinetic campaign to destroy drug smuggling vessels.
Geopolitical Pressure: A "maximum pressure" campaign aimed at the Maduro regime, involving a de facto naval blockade and the constant projection of air power to test Venezuelan defenses.
The operation marked a significant departure from traditional law enforcement interdiction (boarding and arrest) to a militarized "sink-on-sight" engagement rule, creating a war-zone-like tempo in the Caribbean Sea.13
2.2 The Order of Battle: The "Arsenal of Freedom"
The sheer density of military hardware introduced into the region in late 2025 was unprecedented for the post-Cold War era. The airspace congestion that led to the JetBlue and N888ZA incidents was a direct result of the support requirements for this massive force.
2.2.1 Naval Dominance
The cornerstone of the operation was the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) Carrier Strike Group (CSG). As the world's largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Ford brought with it an air wing of 75+ aircraft and a retinue of escort vessels, including three guided-missile destroyers.14
Impact on Airspace: A Carrier Strike Group requires a protective "bubble" of airspace. Carrier-based aircraft (F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, E-2D Hawkeyes) conduct constant cycle operations, creating a high volume of traffic that often spills over into adjacent civil sectors.
2.2.2 Land-Based Air Component
Supplementing the carrier air wing was a significant land-based force operating from U.S. territories in the Caribbean, specifically Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
F-35 Lightning II: A squadron of ten F-35B (Marine Corps) and F-35A (Air Force/Guard) fighters was deployed to Puerto Rico.15 These fifth-generation fighters require frequent aerial refueling to maintain combat air patrols (CAP) over the operational boxes near Venezuela.
Strategic Bombers: The USAF conducted high-visibility power projection missions using B-52 Stratofortresses from the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot AFB. These aircraft flew round-trip missions to the Venezuelan coast to demonstrate "global reach," executing "Bomber Attack Demos".18
ISR and Strike: A fleet of MQ-9 Reaper drones and AC-130J Ghostrider gunships operated from Puerto Rico and forward locations, providing the "persistent stare" and precision firepower needed to target smuggling vessels.18
2.2.3 The Tanker Fleet: The Architects of the Airprox
The specific aircraft involved in the near-misses—the KC-135 and KC-46 tankers—were the logistical lynchpin of this air armada. Satellite imagery and open-source intelligence confirmed a surge of these tankers operating out of St. Croix (U.S. Virgin Islands).20
Operational Tracks: To support F-35s and B-52s loitering off Venezuela, tankers must establish "towline" orbits. These orbits are often elliptical paths where the tanker flies back and forth for hours. The incidents suggest that one of these refueling tracks was established directly perpendicular to the climb-out corridors of Curaçao and Aruba, creating a structural conflict with civil departures.
2.3 Economic Asymmetry and Operational Costs
The operation highlighted a stark economic asymmetry. U.S. forces utilized assets valued in the billions to target low-tech smuggling vessels.
Table 1: Confirmed and Probable Asset Deployment: Operation Southern Spear
Domain
Asset Class
Specific Type
Estimated Unit Cost
Primary Function
Deployment Location
Naval
Aircraft Carrier
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
$12.9 Billion
Power Projection / C2
Caribbean Sea
Destroyer
Arleigh Burke-class (DDG)
$1.8 Billion
Air Defense / Strike
Escort / Sector Defense
Amphibious
Amphibious Ready Group
Varies
Marine Deployment
Caribbean Sea
Air
Fighter
F-35B Lightning II
~$109 Million
Stealth Strike / CAP
Puerto Rico
Bomber
B-52H Stratofortress
N/A (Legacy)
Strategic Deterrence
Minot AFB (Remote)
Tanker
KC-46 Pegasus
~$179 Million
Aerial Refueling
U.S. Virgin Islands
Tanker
KC-135 Stratotanker
~$40 Million
Aerial Refueling
U.S. Virgin Islands
ISR / Drone
MQ-9 Reaper
~$33 Million
Surveillance / Strike
Puerto Rico
Maritime Patrol
P-8 Poseidon
~$145 Million
Surface Search / ASW
Puerto Rico
Munitions
Missile
AGM-114 Hellfire
~$150,000
Precision Strike
Drones / Helos
Bomb
GBU-39 SDB
~$40,000
Precision Strike
Fighters / AC-130
Data compiled from defense analysis snippets.15
The deployment of such high-value assets underscores the high stakes of the operation, explaining the military's reluctance to compromise operational security (OPSEC) by broadcasting their positions via transponder, even at the risk of civil safety.
3. Legal and Regulatory Framework: The "Due Regard" Controversy
The core conflict in these incidents is legal and doctrinal. It pits the rigid safety protocols of civil aviation (governed by ICAO) against the operational flexibility claimed by state military aircraft.
3.1 The ICAO Exemption and "Due Regard"
International aviation is governed by the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention). However, Article 3(a) of the convention explicitly states:
"This Convention shall be applicable only to civil aircraft, and shall not be applicable to state aircraft."
Article 3(d) adds the critical caveat:
"The contracting States undertake, when issuing regulations for their state aircraft, that they will have due regard for the safety of navigation of civil aircraft."
This legal structure creates the concept of "Due Regard." In international airspace (outside the 12-mile territorial limit), U.S. military aircraft are authorized to operate without ATC clearance, without radio communication, and without active transponders if the mission requires it (e.g., stealth, electronic warfare, or covert surveillance).23
3.2 The Burden of Safety
Under "Due Regard," the responsibility for separation shifts entirely from the Air Traffic Controller to the Military Aircraft Commander. The military crew must ensure they do not collide with civil traffic using:
Onboard Radar: Using air-to-air radar to detect other aircraft.
Visual Lookout: "See and Avoid."
AWACS Support: Guidance from airborne early warning aircraft (like the E-2D Hawkeye).
The Breakdown: The JetBlue and N888ZA incidents demonstrate a catastrophic failure of the military crews to uphold this burden. Crossing a published departure corridor—where civil aircraft have high vertical velocities and are focusing on instrument procedures—without electronic conspicuity violates the spirit and letter of "Due Regard." The military aircraft failed to yield or separate, forcing the civilian aircraft (which had the right of way in a regulated airway) to take evasive action.
3.3 The Curaçao FIR: A Jurisdictional Puzzle
The airspace where the incidents occurred, the Curaçao Flight Information Region (TNCF), is a complex jurisdictional entity.
Sovereignty vs. Delegation: While Curaçao is an autonomous country, its foreign relations and defense are the responsibility of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The FIR is managed by the Curaçao Civil Aviation Authority (CCAA).
The Radar Gap: The admission by Curaçao ATC that they "didn't have anything on the scope" 8 reveals a critical infrastructure weakness. The region likely relies heavily on Secondary Radar (transponder-dependent). Without a robust network of primary radars (which are expensive and require high maintenance), "dark" military targets are effectively invisible to the controllers responsible for separating traffic.
The NOTAM Response: Following the incidents, the authorities issued NOTAM A0012/25, advising pilots to exercise "extreme caution" due to "non-identified aircraft operations".7 This NOTAM is effectively a disclaimer of liability, admitting that the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) cannot guarantee separation in its own airspace.
4. Geopolitical Dimensions: Escalation and Fallout
The aviation incidents did not occur in a vacuum; they served as a flashpoint that exacerbated tensions between the United States, Venezuela, and the Kingdom of the Netherlands, threatening to drag the Dutch Caribbean into a broader conflict.
4.1 Venezuela: The Narrative of Aggression
For the administration of Nicolás Maduro, the airspace violations provided potent propaganda and genuine security concerns.
Rhetoric: Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López characterized the U.S. operations as an "imperialist threat" and warned that Venezuela was "prepared to react".26
Mobilization: Venezuela responded with a "massive mobilization" of troops and the activation of air defense assets, including Russian-made S-300VM missile systems and Su-30MK2 fighters.27
The "Shootdown" Risk: The presence of "dark" U.S. aircraft near the Venezuelan border creates a high-risk scenario for miscalculation. If Venezuelan air defense radars detect a non-cooperative target (the U.S. tanker) and scramble fighters to intercept, the potential for an accidental engagement—or the misidentification of a nearby civil airliner as a hostile threat—skyrockets. This mirrors the tragic 1988 downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by the USS Vincennes, a parallel explicitly noted by safety analysts.
4.2 The Dutch Dilemma: Sovereignty Under Siege
The incidents triggered a constitutional and diplomatic crisis within the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
Parliamentary Outrage: In The Hague, Members of Parliament (MPs) launched urgent inquiries, questioning whether the U.S. use of the Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) on Curaçao and Aruba had exceeded the treaty's mandate, which is strictly limited to counter-narcotics and prohibits offensive military operations.29
Complicity Fears: MPs expressed concern that Dutch intelligence or Coast Guard assets might be integrated into the U.S. "kill chain" for sinking vessels, potentially making the Netherlands a co-belligerent in an undeclared war against Venezuela. This would have profound legal implications for the Kingdom.30
Local Anxiety: The Prime Minister of Curaçao, Gilmar Pisas, found his government in a precarious position—caught between the economic necessity of the U.S. military presence and the existential threat to the island's tourism industry posed by the airspace risks.31
4.3 United States: The "Grey Zone" Strategy
From the perspective of Washington, the operations fall under the umbrella of "Grey Zone" warfare—coercive actions that remain below the threshold of declared war.
The "Sink" Policy: The kinetic aspect of Operation Southern Spear—sinking suspected drug vessels rather than seizing them—represents an aggressive interpretation of international law, framed as "self-defense" against "narco-terrorists".13
Casualty Counts: By mid-December, reports indicated that U.S. strikes had resulted in 95 fatalities across 25 separate incidents.32 This high body count fueled the Venezuelan narrative of aggression and intensified the need for the heavy air cover that led to the airspace conflicts.
5. Economic and Safety Implications for Civil Aviation
The immediate aftermath of the near-misses was a shockwave through the regional aviation industry, which is the lifeblood of the Caribbean economy.
5.1 The "Crisis of Confidence" in Tourism
For island nations like Aruba and Curaçao, aviation safety is synonymous with economic survival.
Reputational Damage: Headlines about "near-misses" and "military conflicts" act as a potent deterrent to leisure travelers. The travel industry monitors reacted with alarm, noting that even the perception of unsafe airspace can lead to mass cancellations.33
The "Rat" Incident Context: The situation was further compounded for Dutch carrier KLM, which was already dealing with operational disruptions due to a separate incident involving a rat on board an aircraft in the region. The combination of maintenance issues and geopolitical risk strained the carrier's operations.34
5.2 Airline Responses and Risk Mitigation
KLM: The Dutch flag carrier explicitly stated it would "tighten safety rules" for flights to Curaçao. While they did not cancel the route—likely due to its profitability and the "visiting friends and relatives" (VFR) traffic—they ceased overflying Venezuelan airspace for other South American destinations, routing flights to avoid the SVZM FIR entirely.35
JetBlue: The U.S. carrier took a firm stance, reporting the incident to federal authorities and publicly supporting their pilot's assessment of the "outrageous" nature of the risk. This placed JetBlue in the unusual position of publicly criticizing the operational conduct of the U.S. military.6
International Reaction: The incidents prompted other international carriers to reassess their risk assessments. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and pilot unions (ALPA) have historically been vocal opponents of "Due Regard" operations in civilian corridors, and these events served as a stark validation of their concerns.37
5.3 Technical Incompatibility: A Systemic Risk
The core issue remains the technical incompatibility between "Grey Zone" military operations and the automated safety architecture of civil aviation.
TCAS Reliance: The global aviation safety record has improved largely because of TCAS. By removing this layer of protection, the system reverts to 1960s-era safety levels.
ADS-B Mandates: Most modern airspace requires Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), where aircraft constantly broadcast their GPS position. Military aircraft in combat mode disable this to avoid tracking by open-source intelligence (OSINT) observers. This creates a fundamental conflict: the very technology that makes civil aviation safer (transparency) is the technology the military must defeat for survivability.
6. Conclusion and Future Outlook
The aviation incidents of December 12 and 13, 2025, involving JetBlue Flight 1112 and N888ZA, were not merely close calls; they were structural failures of the Caribbean airspace management regime. They revealed that the segregation between "Operation Southern Spear" and the civilian vacation corridors of the Dutch Caribbean had collapsed.
The U.S. military's decision to conduct high-tempo, "transponder-dark" operations in the departure paths of international airports prioritized operational secrecy over the safety of the traveling public. While the "Due Regard" doctrine provides a legal shield for such operations in international airspace, the practical reality—as evidenced by the pilots' terror and the radar tapes—is that the "See and Avoid" method is woefully inadequate for mixing heavy military tankers with climbing commercial jets.
Key Takeaways:
Systemic Saturation: The volume of military traffic required to support the USS Gerald R. Ford and the kinetic interdiction campaign has exceeded the capacity of the region's airspace to safely accommodate mixed-use operations without enhanced coordination.
The Radar Gap: The inability of Curaçao ATC to "see" the military traffic highlights a dangerous lack of primary radar infrastructure, leaving controllers blind to threats in their own sectors.
Geopolitical Fragility: The incidents have strained the U.S.-Netherlands alliance in the Caribbean, with Dutch political support for the U.S. presence wavering under the threat of being drawn into a conflict with Venezuela.
Outlook:
Unless immediate remedial measures are taken—such as the establishment of a Civil-Military Coordination Cell (CMCC) to deconflict tanker tracks from civil airways, or a mandate for military aircraft to use transponders in proximity to civil airports—the statistical probability of a catastrophic mid-air collision in the Southern Caribbean remains critically high. The region has effectively transitioned from a benign tourist destination to a "Grey Zone" conflict area, where the safety of civil aviation is no longer guaranteed by procedure, but left to the vigilance of individual pilots and the vagaries of chance.
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